ECG Features Associated With Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Combined AFFIRM and AF‐CHF Analysis

BACKGROUND: The association between standard parameters from a simple 12-lead ECG (i.e., QRS duration and PR, JT, and QT intervals) and adverse cardiovascular outcomes (cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, arrhythmic mortality, and hospitalizations) in patients with a history of atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been previously studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: A pooled analysis of patient-level data was conducted on 5,436 patients, age 68.2 ± 8.3 years, 34.8% female, with a history of non-permanent AF randomized in AFFIRM and AF-CHF trials. The predictive value of ECG parameters was assessed in AF and sinus rhythm in multivariate Cox regression models. During a follow-up of 40.8 ± 16.3 months, QRS duration >120 milliseconds was independently associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI; 1.21-1.76] in AF, P < 0.001), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.75, 95% CI (1.15-2.65) in sinus rhythm, P = 0.009; HR 1.56, 95% CI [1.27-1.93] in AF, P < 0.001), arrhythmic mortality (HR 1.90, 95% CI [1.09-3.32] in sinus, P = 0.024; HR 1.84, 95% CI [1.35-2.51] in AF, P < 0.001), any hospitalization (HR 1.15, 95% CI [1.02-1.29] in AF, P = 0.027), and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 1.21, 95% CI [1.06-1.37] in AF; P = 0.004). Increased PR interval (>200 milliseconds) was independently associated with cardiovascular (HR 1.56, 95% CI [1.11-2.21], P = 0.010) and arrhythmic (HR 1.91, 95% CI [1.14-3.18], P = 0.004) mortality. The JT and QTc intervals were not predictive of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Simple parameters from standard ECGs are significantly and independently associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with a history of AF.