Key result
A 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with a 5.6% increase in hand, foot, and mouth disease rate at lag 5 days (95% CI 0.3-10.9).
Why the study?
Do climate factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall influence the rate of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Mekong Delta region?
Observational
Yes
Do climate factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall influence the rate of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Mekong Delta region?
Effect estimate: 5.6% increase (95% CI 0.3-10.9)
HFMD incidence in the Mekong Delta region is significantly associated with increases in temperature, humidity, and rainfall, with peaks occurring during the rainy season.
Temperature rises may aid HFMD surveillance in Mekong Delta; hypothesis-generating for climate-disease models.
This study examined the temporal and spatial patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. A time-series analysis was used to examine the temporal patterns of HFMD in relation to climate factors while a retrospective space-time scan was used to detect the high-risk space-time clusters of this disease. A 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with 5.6% increase in HFMD rate at lag 5days (95% CI 0.3-10.9). A 1% increase in humidity had equal influence of 1.7% increases on HFMD rate at both lag 3days and 6days (95% CI 0.7-2.7 and 95% CI 0.8-2.6, respectively). An increase in 1 unit of rainfall was associated with a 0.5% increase of HFMD rate on the lag 1 and 6days (95% CI 0.2-0.9 and 95% CI 0.1-0.8, respectively). The predictive model indicated that the peak of HFMD was from October to December - the rainy season in the Mekong Delta region. Most high-risk clusters were located in areas with high population density and close to transport routes. The findings suggest that HFMD is influenced by climate factors and is likely to increase in the future due to climate change related weather events.
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Chu et al. (2017) conducted an observational in Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). Climate factors (temperature, humidity, rainfall) was evaluated on HFMD rate (5.6% increase, 95% CI 0.3-10.9). A 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with a 5.6% increase in hand, foot, and mouth disease rate at lag 5 days (95% CI 0.3-10.9).
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