Key result
A weekly average temperature of 26 °C was associated with a significantly increased risk of scrub typhus incidence compared to the median temperature (RR 3.816).
Why the study?
Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended.
Observational (n=5,942)
No
Relative Risk: 3.816 (95% CI 1.395–10.438)
Meteorological factors, particularly higher temperatures and specific sunshine durations, are significantly associated with an increased risk of scrub typhus incidence in Ganzhou City, providing a basis for early warning systems.
Meteorological surveillance may inform early warnings in endemic areas; leaves open whether climate-targeted interventions can reduce scrub typhus incidence.
BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. METHODS: From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2021, we gathered weekly records of scrub typhus prevalence alongside meteorological data in Ganzhou city. In order to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence, we utilized distributional lag nonlinear models and generalized additive models for our analysis. RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2021, a total of 5942 cases of scrub typhus were recorded in Ganzhou City. The number of females affected exceeded that of males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.86. Based on the median values of these meteorological factors, the highest relative risk for scrub typhus occurrence was observed when the weekly average temperature reached 26 °C, the weekly average relative humidity was 75%, the weekly average sunshine duration lasted for 2 h, and the weekly mean wind speed measured 2 m/s. The respective relative risks for these factors were calculated as 3.816 (95% CI: 1.395-10.438), 1.107 (95% CI: 1.008-1.217), 2.063 (95% CI: 1.022-4.165), and 1.284 (95% CI: 1.01-1.632). Interaction analyses showed that the risk of scrub typhus infection in Ganzhou city escalates with higher weekly average temperature and sunshine duration. CONCLUSION: The findings of our investigation provide evidence of a correlation between environmental factors and the occurrence of scrub typhus. As a suggestion, utilizing environmental factors as early indicators could be recommended for initiating control measures and response strategies.
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Pan et al. (2024) conducted an observational in Scrub typhus (n=5,942). Weekly average temperature of 26 °C vs. Median weekly average temperature was evaluated on Incidence of scrub typhus (RR 3.816, 95% CI 1.395-10.438). A weekly average temperature of 26 °C was associated with a significantly increased risk of scrub typhus incidence compared to the median temperature (RR 3.816).
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