Why does novice drivers’ risk decrease by almost 50% during the first year, and what do they learn? A literature review of explanatory mechanisms

Previous studies show that new drivers’ accident risk drops substantially, e.g. by almost 50% in the first 10 months after getting a driving license. We conduct a systematic literature study to map the mechanisms that explain why the risk of new drivers decreases during the first year and to examine what the research says about which mechanisms are most important to explain this. The results indicate that the risk decreases because of accumulated driving experience, and that the most important mechanism, i.e., the most important things you learn through accumulated driving experience, are improved risk perception and improved distribution of attention. Other mechanisms are improved vehicle handling, improved understanding of your own abilities and limitations, and improved speed control and positioning. We discuss various measures that can provide accumulated driving experience under a safe framework, for example through private practice driving, graded driving licenses and digital tools.