Progress and problems in the development of recreational trip generation and trip distribution models

Continuing problems in the development of recreational spatial interaction models are discussed. The paper begins by considering the relative behavioral relevance to recreational travel behavior of the unconstrained gravity model, the origin‐constrained gravity model, and a simultaneous trip generation and trip distribution model. It elaborates on the behavioral rationale for the supply‐generated participation effect hypothesized in the latter model. A detailed discussion ensues of modeling problems related to the travel cost/distance and the attractiveness components of recreational trip distribution models. Particular topics covered are the continued inability of models to estimate the separate effects of various elements of travel cost and the evidence that, in addition to a distance deterrence effect, there is a nearest opportunity effect, an intervening opportunities effect, and perceptual barrier effects on recreational travel flows. A review of recent developments in estimating destination attractiveness leads to a discussion of a multinomial logit regression model of trip distribution and of the effect of crowding on the interpretation of revealed attractiveness estimates. The paper concludes with a discussion of the effect of spatial aggregation on parameter estimates and the implications for planning applications.