Socioeconomic and academic correlates of dropout intention in higher education: Cross-sectional evidence from a colombian public university

Student retention is a major challenge for higher education because withdrawal is associated with substantial academic, social, and financial costs. This cross-sectional study examines demographic, socioeconomic, academic, and support-related factors associated with dropout intention among undergraduate students at the National University of Colombia, La Paz campus. Using a web-based survey of 333 students collected between August and December 2025, representing 25.2% of the target population of 1,323 enrolled undergraduates, the analysis constructs a five-point dropout intention index and estimates nested ordered logistic regression models, Spearman correlations, and average marginal effects. First-generation status (OR = 1.76, 95% CI [1.17, 2.65], p = 0.007) and living in rented housing (OR = 1.55, 95% CI [1.02, 2.35], p = 0.040) were associated with higher dropout intention. In contrast, program satisfaction (OR = 0.64, 95% CI [0.49, 0.83], p = 0.001) and positive perceptions of labor-market opportunities (OR = 0.79, 95% CI [0.63, 0.99], p = 0.037) were associated with lower dropout intention. Average marginal effects indicate that first-generation students had a 7.18 percentage-point higher predicted probability of reporting high dropout intention, whereas each additional point in program satisfaction was associated with a 4.31 percentage-point lower probability. The findings should be interpreted as associational evidence from a single regional campus and suggest that retention strategies should address both academic experience and socioeconomic vulnerability.