Emotions, political ideology, and socially situated risk perceptions of water-related natural hazards

Water-related natural hazards such as drought, wildfires, and flooding pose growing risks to water-dependent rural communities, but political polarization complicates adaptation planning and collective responses. Discrete emotional reactions to these hazards can shape how risks are perceived and whether institutional support is viewed as necessary. Drawing on the risk-as-feelings, social amplification of risk, and cultural cognition frameworks, risk perception is conceptualized as a socially situated affective process that is grounded in lived hazard experiences. A representative survey of Wyoming residents (N = 557) was analyzed using moderated mediation models to assess how discrete emotions, organized by arousal (high/low) and valence (positive/negative), predicted perceived risk and institutional support needs, with political ideology as a moderator. High arousal negative emotions (e.g. fear, worry, anger) showed the largest and most consistent effects on risk perceptions across ideological groups, with the strongest effect among conservatives (b = 0.42, p < .001) compared to liberals (b = 0.27, p < .001) and moderates (b = 0.35, p < .001). Higher risk perceptions, in turn, predicted increased need for support to address water-related natural hazards. High arousal positive emotions (e.g. hope, confidence) directly predicted need for support perceptions among liberals only and did not significantly influence risk perceptions. Emotional arousal appears to function as a mechanism of risk amplification. Political ideology influenced the strength of emotional responses on risk perceptions but did not eliminate the associations between emotion, risk appraisal, and governance expectations. These findings clarify how discrete emotions and ideological identity jointly shape perceptions of risk severity and support for institutional responses and offer insights for understanding public expectations about risk governance in politically polarized, hazard-exposed rural communities.