Could Ecological Crises Lead to State De-Formation?

Climate change and extinction of species are the most prominent consequences of a disturbed relationship between society and nature. Ecological crises are also social crises: if they undermine natural resources, social and state order will also be challenged. I examine what the latter can mean exactly by looking at Charles Tilly’s analysis of state formation in Europe. I use his concept of prospective analysis, as he developed it for the analysis of historical processes, to outline future developments from the present. Can fundamental ecological crises reverse the direction of the process of state formation and lead to a de-formation, to a fragmentation of state order? In the search for an answer, aspects come into focus that distinguish Tilly’s analysis from others: the relationship between capital and coercion, a specific mechanism as the driver of a long-term process, and also the role of war in the formation of complex orders.