The Growth Trap: Recruitment Windfalls and Bottom-Up Transformation in Militant Organizations

Recruitment windfalls can strengthen militant organizations while redirecting their strategy and tactics. This article develops the growth trap mechanism, a grassroots driven process in which incomplete socialization and delegation embed new recruits’ preferences into organizational behavior. These upward pressures can transform a group’s strategic priorities and operational focus. Drawing on qualitative documents, event data, and computational text analysis, I trace the evolution of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (2009–2016) to illustrate this dynamic. The growth trap highlights how organizational expansion can sow the seeds of transformation—a paradox that illuminates both militant evolution and the life cycle of opaque, high-risk institutions.