Industrial Robot Applications, Urban–Rural Dual-System Structure, and Rural–Urban Labor Migration: Evidence from 31 Chinese Provinces

Artificial intelligence technologies, as exemplified by industrial robots, have become a key factor reshaping the spatial distribution of the labor force in China’s urban and rural areas. Building on the classic Lewis paradigm, this study uncovers the underlying logic and evolutionary patterns of rural–urban labor migration in China under the dual influences of industrial robotics applications and Chinese institutional constraints. Subsequently, in this study, we conducted an empirical analysis using interprovincial data from China between 2006 and 2024 and found that the impact of industrial robot applications on rural-to-urban labor migration follows an inverted U-shaped pattern. Mechanistic analysis indicated that this was primarily attributable to the labor price effect triggered by changes in the urban–rural income gap and the dynamic evolution of the urban sector’s demand for migrant workers. Further, we found that the urban–rural dual-system structure exerted a significant moderating effect on the aforementioned inverted U-shaped relationship. Specifically, regions with relatively solidified dual-system structures showed a delay in the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve. This indicated that, in response to the impact of industrial robots, the dual-system structure objectively provides additional transition adaptation time for migrant workers. The conclusions from this study are of great significance for sustainable urbanization in China in the digital intelligence era.