The Caivano Decree and the Erosion of the Italian Exception: Administrative-Preventive Adultification in Juvenile Justice, 1991–2026

For nearly four decades the Italian juvenile justice system, anchored in Presidential Decree 448/1988, has been characterised in comparative scholarship as a minimum-intervention, welfare-oriented model and as a rare instance of resilience to the punitive turn documented across Europe and North America. This article examines whether that characterisation still holds after Law-Decree 123/2023 (the Caivano Decree). Drawing on a consolidated dataset assembled from official statistics of the Italian Department for Juvenile Justice and Community covering 1991–2026, we document four empirical facts. Admissions to Juvenile Correctional Facilities rose by 76% between the 2020 historical minimum and 2024, interrupting three decades of decarceration; an exploratory interrupted time series model estimates a post-decree excess of approximately 261 detainees. This expansion is dissociated from the underlying caseload: between 2022 and 2024 community referrals grew by 13.5% while the average daily detained population grew by 45.5%. Pre-trial detention became the prevailing modality of custody, reaching 68.9% of the detained population by June 2026. Probation under article 28, restricted by the Decree, had displayed a success rate above 80% for twenty-two consecutive years. We interpret the Italian case as administrative-preventive adultification: convergence on adult penal logics achieved through precautionary and gate-keeping instruments rather than through jurisdictional transfer or substantive criminal law reform, leaving the core architecture of DPR 448/1988 formally intact.