Modeling analysis reveals increased cervical cancer incidence and mortality with five-year versus three-year cotesting in women aged 30–64, suggesting longer intervals reduce protection.
In Brief The 2012 national recommendations for cervical cancer screening will produce a lower level of cervical cancer protection than previously afforded by annual cytology or 3-year cotesting. After a single negative cotest result, the risk of cervical cancer is twice as large at 5 years as it is at 3 years. Modeling published since the 2012 guidelines were drafted indicates that extending the cotesting screening interval from 3 to 5 years at ages 30–64 years will result in an additional 1 woman in 369 compliant with screening receiving a cervical cancer diagnosis during her lifetime, and an additional 1 in 1,639 dying of cervical cancer. The authors believe that a significant number of patients and providers would not choose to accept these additional risks if they understood them, despite the recognition of potential harms associated with more intensive screening. The 2012 national recommendations for cervical cancer screening will produce a lower level of cervical cancer protection than previously afforded by annual cytology or 3-year cotesting.
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Kinney et al. (2015) studied this question.
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