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A theory is presented for the transient process of decay from the state of marginal stability occurring in a subcritical pitchfork bifurcation. We introduce an approximation for the stochastic paths that allows the calculation of a generating function for the statistics of the escape time. The time-dependent moments and transient fluctuations are calculated from the distribution of passage times by a scaling transformation that is associated with initial non-Gaussian statistics. Our results are in agreement with numerical simulations reported also here.
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Colet et al. (1990) studied this question.
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