Synergies between climate mitigation and adaptation: the role of photovoltaics in meeting cooling demand in Italy

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This paper explores the synergies between photovoltaic (PV) adoption as a climate mitigation strategy and the growing need for adaptation through increased cooling demand across Italy. We combine estimates of semi elasticities capturing the effect of residential PV systems on household electricity withdrawals from the grid with high frequency projections of local PV potential, future adoption scenarios and climate projections. This integrated framework allows us to assess two key outcomes: first, the evolution of residential electricity demand for cooling under rising temperatures and second, the extent to which PV diffusion can offset grid electricity consumption. Our nationwide analysis estimates that with rising temperatures, cooling needs will drive significant increases in electricity demand, by 2–3 TWh annually, a 5% increase with respect to residential electricity consumption in 2023. At the same time, expanded PV adoption can partially counterbalance this effect by reducing household reliance on the grid during peak demand periods by almost 50%. The spatial distribution of future PV uptake reveals pronounced heterogeneity across municipalities. Areas in northern Italy and the islands, where installation rates are relatively high, experience sizable benefits from PV generation. In contrast, large and densely populated cities in central and southern Italy, despite being more exposed to frequent and intense heat, capture far smaller gains due to persistently low PV penetration. Overall, our results highlight the importance of jointly considering mitigation and adaptation when designing energy policies. They also underscore the role of targeted measures to promote PV adoption in heat exposed urban areas as part of Italy’s ongoing energy transition.