Impacts Beyond Penal Population: Mass Incarceration and Trust in the Criminal Justice System

Objectives: Mass incarceration affects the trust in the Criminal Justice System (CJS). Nonetheless, it is not clear by which mechanisms it influences citizens' trust in the CJS, beyond the prison population. This study explores the role of the perceptions of mass imprisonment and its causal heterogeneity, by racial/ethnic categories and the political orientation of the individuals.Methods: Upon a non-probability sample, obtained through an unrestricted web survey fielded in 2021 (N=1,120) we embedded a experiment to assess trust in the CJS. As stimulus we used vignettes with a 2x2 factorial design.Results: Our findings suggest that the perceptions of mass imprisonment do not significantly affect trust in the CJS. Even so, some of these effects become salient and causally heterogeneous when taking into account the indigenous identity, migrant status and individuals’ political orientation.Conclusions: Perceptions of mass incarceration have divergent and possibly cumulative effects between different groups of the population.