What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate future spatio-temporal trends of extreme precipitation and project disaster-causing risks across the Yangtze River Basin under CMIP6 climate scenarios from 2021 to 2100.

March 1, 2023Hydrology researchOpen Access

Projection of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin based on CMIP6

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

CXChengyu XuChinese Academy of Sciences CYCanyu YuanChinese Academy of Sciences XLXianghu LiChinese Academy of Sciences

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Climate modeling reveals rising extreme precipitation and disaster risk in river basin zones, highlighting future flood vulnerability.

Key Points

To evaluate future spatio-temporal trends of extreme precipitation and project disaster-causing risks across the Yangtze River Basin under CMIP6 climate scenarios from 2021 to 2100.
Simulated extreme precipitation trends from 2021 to 2100 using CMIP6 models across five climate scenarios compared with historical baselines.
Assessed precipitation indices, including annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), heavy precipitation (R95p), heavy rain days (R50), and 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day).
Developed a disaster-causing risk assessment framework classifying risks into five spatial tiers (Levels I–V).
Annual precipitation increases by 33.05% to 42.56% across five future scenarios relative to the historical period, accompanied by significant rises in heavy precipitation (R95p), despite decreases in heavy rain days (R50) and 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day).
Moderate-to-high disaster risk (Levels III and IV) covers 57.23% to 65.99% of the total basin area, marked by a contraction of low-risk regions (Levels I and II) and expansion of medium-risk regions.
The highest hazard tier (Level V) concentrates predominantly in the Poyang Lake Basin and the lower main stream of the Yangtze River.

Cite This Study

Xu et al. (2023) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a93be0a744b618ad237ec97 https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.141

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Projection of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin based on CMIP6

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Projection of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin based on CMIP6

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Also Consider

Also Consider