Cardiovascular disease risk prediction via machine learning using mental health data

Background Robust and accurate risk prediction models are much needed in cardiovascular disease. It is well-known that mental health is associated with the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. It is unknown whether mental health markers can enhance existing risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease. Purpose The main purpose of this study was to assess capability of mental health factors along with traditional risk factors to be used in cardiovascular predictive machine learning models, and to develop a combined machine learning approach using both traditional risk and psychological factors in 375,145 participants of the UK Biobank. Methods A comprehensive Pearson correlation analysis is carried out on UK Biobank data. Subsequently, an ensemble model containing decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, support vector machine (SVM), and deep neural network (DNN) classification approaches was built to predict cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in UK Biobank participants. The model was first trained using traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and subsequently trained using a combination of cardiovascular risk and psychological factors. Results The correlation analysis revealed that there is a correlation between CVD and mental health factors suggesting the potential of mental health application for machine learning models. Our ensemble machine learning model was able to predict CVD with an accuracy of 73.49% using CVD risk factors alone. However, by combining psychological factors with CVD risk factors in the training data, an improved accuracy of 95.70% was achieved. The accuracy and robustness of ensemble machine learning model outperformed any of five constituent learning algorithms alone. Conclusions Our results suggest that mental health assessment data along with traditional risk factors provides a powerful, safe and affordable machine learning model enrichment that can be used for state-of-the-art prediction of CVD. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.