Landscape-scale dynamics of structural connectivity and restoration priorities for jaguar habitat in Mexico’s Central Pacific

Habitat loss is a major driver of biodiversity decline, particularly for wide-ranging carnivores that depend on connected landscapes. For species such as the jaguar ( Panthera onca ), changes in forest configuration and landscape connectivity can rapidly compromise corridor functionality and long-term population persistence. This study aims to (1) evaluate recent changes in structural connectivity within the jaguar corridor system in the Central Pacific region of Mexico and (2) identify and prioritize areas for ecological restoration to maintain or enhance landscape connectivity. The study was conducted in the jaguar corridor system in the Central Pacific region of Mexico, a key stronghold for the jaguar. We assessed recent landscape changes by integrating high-resolution land cover maps from 2019 and 2023 with structural connectivity analysis and functional connectivity modeling across jaguar corridors. Land cover analysis revealed a net forest loss of 216 km 2 (0.53%) over the study period, along with increases in forest perforations and edges. Structural connectivity analysis showed a reduction in core forest areas and a modest increase in bridges, loops, and branches, indicating early-stage forest conversion rather than complete corridor collapse. Functional connectivity patterns indicated that 43% of the landscape exhibited reduced movement flow, while 53% showed intensified flow and 3.4% displayed highly channelized movement. These channelized areas represent critical pinch points where connectivity is most vulnerable to further degradation. Based on the integration of structural and functional metrics, we identified zones of extreme, high, and medium restoration priority. Extreme-priority areas were concentrated mainly in Jalisco and Durango. Our results highlight that changes in forest configuration, rather than forest loss alone, can rapidly undermine corridor functionality. The proposed spatial prioritization framework provides actionable guidance for landscape-level restoration and is transferable to other fragmented tropical regions facing similar connectivity challenges.