The rise of renewable energy: How it shapes dependency, diversity, and geopolitical risk in the European Union

As the European Union advances its shift toward cleaner energy to address climate challenges, a pressing question emerges: can this shift also strengthen energy security in an increasingly volatile global landscape? This study investigates the impact of renewable energy on energy security risks across 27 EU countries over the period 2010 to 2022. It measures energy security through three key dimensions—energy dependency risk, energy diversity risk, and geopolitical risk. The findings reveal that renewable energy significantly mitigates energy diversity risk and geopolitical risk across the EU. However, its impact on energy dependency risk is statistically insignificant in the overall sample. Notably, further non-linear analyses show that in countries with higher levels of renewable energy deployment, renewables significantly reduce dependency risk on foreign energy sources. This highlights the importance of reaching a critical threshold of renewable integration to unlock broader energy security benefits.