Extremism in Europe: From immediate threats to long-term risks

This article examines the evolving trajectories of extremism in Europe across short-, medium- and long-term horizons. In the short term, extremist dynamics are increasingly being shaped by hybrid ecosystems that blur the boundaries between online and offline mobilisation, and between fringe and mainstream narratives. In the medium term, structural drivers such as conflicts, political polarisation and generational shifts are likely to consolidate more fluid and decentralised forms of extremist engagement. In the long term, the article highlights the risks of the potential growth in radicalisation among diasporas, including communities that have not traditionally been associated with extremist dynamics or have so far shown limited levels of mobilisation. By adopting a temporal framework, the contribution aims to support policymakers in anticipating both immediate threats and the deeper transformations affecting the landscape of extremism in Europe.