Knowledge Calibration in Pharmaceutical Training: Asymmetric Bias and the Influence of Adaptive E‐Learning, Expertise and Satisfaction

This study examines domain‐level knowledge calibration in pharmaceutical training. Miscalibration can undermine safety in regulated environments by reducing information seeking and procedural checking. Employees completed an adaptive Good Manufacturing Practice e‐learning course in a multinational pharmaceutical organization. Results revealed an asymmetric calibration pattern consistent with the Dunning–Kruger effect: the lowest‐performing quartile overestimated performance by +15.94 percentage points, while the highest‐performing quartile underestimated by −7.72 points, yielding a 23.66‐point spread (). Simulation‐based analyses suggest partial metacognitive sensitivity rather than a pattern fully explained by regression‐to‐the‐mean artefacts, although measurement and grouping concerns remain relevant. Training pathway did not moderate the asymmetric calibration pattern ( F (3, 692) = 1.23, p = 0.297, with modest plant‐level variation (). Individual course endorsement was moderately associated with overestimation (, ) but unrelated to objective knowledge, suggesting that reaction measures should not be interpreted as evidence of objective learning.