Global rice methane emissions tripled over six decades amid declining emission intensity

Rice paddies are among the largest anthropogenic sources of methane (CH4), yet substantial uncertainties persist in the long-term magnitude and spatiotemporal dynamics of the emissions. Here we show a spatially explicit global estimate of rice CH4 emissions from 1961 to 2020, leveraging a new high-resolution dataset and two Tier 3 modeling approaches (process-based and machine-learning-based). We find that global emissions have more than tripled over the past six decades, reaching a record high of 38.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 based on the mean of the two Tier 3 estimates, both the rate and magnitude are substantially higher than conventional emission-factor-based inventories. Traditional rice-producing regions (e.g. Asia) dominated the increase due to expanded cultivation and intensified organic inputs, while Africa emerged as a rapidly growing source. Beyond trends in absolute emissions, the CH4 emission intensity (per unit of rice yield) declined across 70% of the global paddy area, mainly reflecting yield-driven efficiency gains. Notably, 44% of global rice production in the 2010 s occurs in countries with below-average emission intensity, with China being the largest contributor. By resolving long-term spatial heterogeneity with new data and models, this study provides a robust reassessment of the global rice methane budget and highlights pathways to reconcile food production with climate mitigation.