Dispositions towards scientific uncertainty navigation (DSUN): relationships with epistemic curiosity and science learning before and after uncertainty-driven instruction

Epistemic curiosity (EC) is widely recognised as a driver of science learning, yet less is known about how it is stimulated through students’ encounters with scientific uncertainty. This study examined how students’ dispositions towards scientific uncertainty navigation (DSUN) relate to EC and learning achievement, and how these relationships shift after participation in an uncertainty-driven learning environment. Survey data were collected from 857 middle school students across 32 science classrooms taught by 11 teachers. Five dimensions of DSUN, epistemic orientation towards uncertainty, positive and negative affective reactions, self-efficacy in uncertainty navigation, and uncertainty navigation strategies, were examined in relation to interest-type (I-type) and deprivation-type (D-type) EC using mediational path analyses adjusted for baseline EC and achievement. Results showed that, after instruction, epistemic orientation and positive affective reaction indirectly predicted learning achievement through I-type EC, pathways not observed before instruction. In contrast, D-type EC did not predict achievement. Negative affective reaction predicted less I-type EC but more D-type EC. In addition, self-efficacy predicted achievement before instruction but predicted EC rather than achievement directly after instruction. These findings suggest the importance of supporting productive engagement with scientific uncertainty to foster curiosity and science learning.