When neighbors stop knocking: The impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labor markets

We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.