Pension Contribution Rate Changes, Pass-through, and Firm Exports

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

As a significant component of corporate costs in China, pension insurance contributions have received insufficient attention regarding to their cost-transfer mechanisms to product prices and subsequent effects on product competitiveness. This study examines the impact of pension insurance contribution rate reforms on enterprise exports, exploring transmission mechanisms through consumer price transfers (export product pricing). Our findings reveal that substantial inter-city disparities exist, with coastal regions maintaining lower rates compared to Northeast China and Tibet, whereas state-owned enterprises have higher contribution rates with smaller regional variations. Besides, higher pension contribution rates significantly reduce both export probability (extensive margin) and export volume (intensive margin), with diminished effects observed among larger, more established enterprises and industries with higher marketization levels. Furthermore, mechanism analysis demonstrates tripartite transmission channels: pension costs affect export performance through price pass-through to consumers, aggravated financing constraints, and structural labor adjustments. The study concludes that excessive pension contribution rates ultimately transfer to consumers via price increases, undermining corporate competitiveness in international markets and impeding trade's pivotal role in economic development.