Volatility in bed occupancy for emergency admissions

The volatility associated with the average bed occupancy for emergency admissions is shown to follow complex long-term patterns. Such patterns in volatility arise from the interaction between the environment and human physiological and immunological processes. Hospital average bed occupancy should be sufficient to cope with the periods associated with maximum amplitude in volatility and it is at this point that current methods for sizing hospitals are woefully inadequate. By implication hospitals should be built with a higher number of available beds than in current practice. Supporting methodologies need to be developed to allow hospital managers to staff the occupied beds in a predictive manner rather than the available beds, to minimise staff costs but maximize patient care.