Cyclicity and synchrony of historical outbreaks of the beech caterpillar, Quadricalcarifera punctatella (Motschulsky) in Japan

Historical records of the incidence of defoliation caused by the beech caterpillar, Quadricalcarifera punctatella (Motschulsky) in northern Japanese prefectures from 1910–1993 were used to characterize the cyclicity and synchrony of outbreaks. Cyclicity and synchrony were quantified using standard Box‐Jenkins time series methods as well as spectral analysis and simple Markov models. Statistical analysis of these records indicated the presence of quasi‐periodic behavior with 8–11 yr between outbreaks. Outbreaks tended to occur synchronously among different prefectures, though the onset of outbreaks was typically lagged. This study illustrates the use of specific statistical methods for characterizing cyclicity and synchrony from crude records of the presence/absence of outbreaks.