Prediction of Rainfall in India using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Models

In this paper, ARIMA(1,1,1) model and Artificial Neural Net work (ANN) models like Multi Layer Perceptron (M LP), Functional-link Artificial Neural Network (FLA NN) and Legendre Po lynomial Equation ( LPE) were used to predict the time series data. MLP, FLA NN and LPE gave very accurate results for co mp lex t ime series model. A ll the A rtificial Neural Network model results ma tched closely with the ARIMA(1,1,1) model with minimu m Absolute Average Percentage Error(AAPE). Co mparing the different ANN models for time series analysis, it was found that FLANN gives better prediction results as compared to ARIMA model with less Absolute Average Percentage Error (AAPE) for the measured rainfall data.