The combined effects of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and the EU deforestation regulation on ASEAN wood exports: a simulation analysis using the GTAP-E model

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) are key instruments of the European Union’s green trade policy. This study employs the GTAP-E (Global Trade Analysis Project–Energy) model to assess their impacts on wood exports from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The results indicate that CBAM has a relatively moderate effect, operating mainly through indirect cost transmission channels. In contrast, EUDR significantly constrains exports, output, and welfare by increasing compliance costs and tightening market access requirements. Under the combined scenario, the two policies generate an amplification effect, further intensifying trade contraction. Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are the most adversely affected, while countries such as Singapore exhibit a certain degree of resilience. Overall, green trade policies may exacerbate existing development imbalances. In response, it is recommended that the EU strengthen support for technology transfer and capacity building, while ASEAN countries should enhance forest governance and promote export market diversification.