The impact of whole-region comprehensive land consolidation on carbon balance: an analysis based on township-level panel data in China

Land use optimization represents an important pathway toward regional low-carbon transition and sustainable development. As a territorial spatial governance instrument centered on the coordinated optimization of production, living, and ecological spaces, Whole-Region Comprehensive Land Consolidation (WRCLC) still lacks systematic empirical evidence regarding its effects on regional carbon balance. Based on panel data from 9,162 townships in China during the period 2013–2022, this study combines the staggered difference-in-differences model with fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to systematically examine the impact, mechanisms, and pathways of WRCLC on carbon balance.. The results show that: (1) WRCLC exerts a positive effect on carbon balance and generates positive adjacent indirect effects; (2) production space optimization, living space optimization, and ecological space optimization constitute the key mechanisms through which WRCLC promotes carbon balance; (3) market-oriented and diversified collaborative configurations are important pathways for achieving high-level carbon balance. Therefore, this study provides new empirical evidence and policy implications for how global land governance can synergistically promote spatial optimization, ecological restoration, and low-carbon development.