Steering sustainability transitions with reflexivity: policy strategies for handling emergent lock-ins and path dependencies

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

In this paper, we explore and draw attention to overcoming the challenge of emergent lock-in through policy strategies, among the other challenges associated with the acceleration of transitions. To navigate the ongoing sustainability transition, policy-making must reflect on the unintended developments and side-effects emerging in transitions, notably emergent lock-ins. We argue that this type of lock-in can drive developments that are unsustainable or not sufficiently sustainable, thereby slowing down transition processes, and second, undermining the achievement of sustainability targets, namely net-zero. Based on a narrative literature review, we discuss how emergent lock-ins have not played a central role in the literature. Furthermore, we present six strategies that deliver flexibility, ultimately reducing the risk of emergent lock-ins. Reflecting on how to anticipate and prevent these lock-ins represents a necessary step towards being able to adjust to future developments and to the uncertainty affecting transitions. In conclusion, this contribution to research is a first attempt to outline emergent lock-ins as a major challenge for the acceleration of transitions and to shed some light on the strategies to handle this challenge.