Comparison of standard Euroscore, logistic Euroscore and Euroscore II in prediction of early mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting

OBJECTIVE: EuroSCORE is the most widely used risk prediction system. Standard EuroSCORE, which had been published in 1999, was revised as a Logistic EuroSCORE in 2003. Further, it was reconsidered and published as EuroSCORE II in 2011. In this study we compared Standard, Logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II in prediction of early mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 406 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting operation between 2011-1012. Standard, Logistic and new version were compared with ROC analysis. RESULTS: In general population, mean standard EuroSCORE was 3.25±1.05, mean logistic EuroSCORE was found 2.48±0.58, mean EuroSCORE II was found 1.30 ± 0.09 and overall mortality was 10 (10/406 2.46%). Area under curve (AUC) was found 0.992 95% CI: 0.978-0.998 for standard EuroSCORE, 0.992 95% CI: 0.977-0.998 for logistic EuroSCORE and 0.990 95% CI: 0.975-0.997 for EuroSCORE II. In high risk patients (patients with standard EuroSCORE ≥ 6) AUC was found 0.870 95% CI 0.707-0.961 for standard EuroSCORE, 0.857 95% CI 0.691-0.954 for logistic EuroSCORE, and 0.961 95% CI: 0.829-0.998 for EuroSCORE II. CONCLUSION: Standard, Logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II are similarly successful in mortality prediction. EuroSCORE II may be better in high-risk patients which needs confirmation in large prospective studies.