Key result
EuroSCORE II showed good calibration and discriminative capacity (AUC 0.762) for predicting in-hospital mortality in Chinese CABG patients, reducing the overestimation seen with logistic EuroSCORE.
Why the study?
Does the EuroSCORE II risk model better predict in-hospital mortality compared to the logistic EuroSCORE in Chinese patients undergoing CABG?
Observational (n=1,598)
Does the EuroSCORE II risk model better predict in-hospital mortality compared to the logistic EuroSCORE in Chinese patients undergoing CABG?
EuroSCORE II is a more accurate risk prediction model than logistic EuroSCORE for estimating in-hospital mortality in Chinese patients undergoing CABG.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
EuroSCORE II may improve risk stratification for Chinese CABG mortality; extends validation but leaves open prospective confirmation before practice change.
BACKGROUND: Comparisons between the EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II in the patient populations for coronary artery bypass grafting are limited. The aim of the study was to compare the use of the EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II as risk model for predicting in-hospital mortality in Chinese patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: Patients (n = 1598) with complete records of baseline and operative data were retrospectively collected from computerized records. The expected mortality rate for logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II was determined. Performance of the logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II model was assessed by comparing the observed and expected in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power. RESULTS: Observed in-hospital overall mortality rate was 3.19%. The logistic EuroSCORE model (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P < .05, O/E = 0.73) over-predicted mortality (4.39%) and the EuroSCORE II model showed good calibration and discriminative capacity (area 0.762) in predicting in-hospital mortality (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P = .191, O/E = 1.24). CONCLUSION: EuroSCORE II model reduces the overestimation of the calculated risk by logistic EuroSCORE in this population. EuroSCORE II risk model may be suitable in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery in China.
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Shen et al. (2018) conducted an observational in Coronary artery bypass grafting (n=1,598). EuroSCORE II vs. logistic EuroSCORE was evaluated on in-hospital mortality (AUC 0.762, p=0.191). EuroSCORE II showed good calibration and discriminative capacity (AUC 0.762) for predicting in-hospital mortality in Chinese CABG patients, reducing the overestimation seen with logistic EuroSCORE.
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