Earthquake Activity and Antecedent Ufo Report Numbers

Summary.-Statistical analyses were conduaed to test the model thar a discriminable portion of luminous phenomena now classified under the gross rubric of UFOs (unidentified flying objects) are coupled with tectonic strainseismic activity. Various correlational methods involving over 20,000 UFO reports between 1951 and 1965 for six earthquake sectors of the U.S.A. indicated chat the combined numbers of seismic events during 6-mo. priods within the northeastern, eastern and central regions were correlated as much as 0.70 with UFO report numbers during previous 6-mo. intervals (UFO report-seismic event lag = -1). Other lags as well as correlations with total U.S.A. seismic numbers were not statistically significant. Several specific statistical evaluations were completed. Transient, luminous displays with odd geometries and kinetics have been called UFOs (unidentified flying objects) or a related metaphor (Persinger, 1976). Despite statistical analysis demonstrating that some of the variability in numbers of UFORs (UFO reports) is subject to demographic variables (Saunders, 1975), the stimulus sources for many UFORs are still unclear. The dilemma has been antagonized by many difficulties, including the absence of quantitative and testable models. Although confounding factors from human behaviors, such as labeling artifacts and memory modifications (Persinger, 1979a), remain a persistent source of variance in numbers (and details) of UFORs, a geophysical stimulus may account for a significant portion of their variability. This factor appears to be related to some unspecified mechanism coupled with tectonic strain or seismic activity. UFO-like phenomena induced by this mechanism would be qualitatively similar to the displays of varied luminous shapes, diffuse glows, and related light stimuli that have been associated with some earthquakes for cennuies (Derr, 1973; Finkelstein, Hill, & Powell, 1973; Terada, 1931; Yasui, 1971). The general assumption of the model is that normal geophysical forces usually (and inconspicuously) applied over large areas are transiently localized in time ( 1 to 100 min.) and space ( 100mo 1 krn2). Whereas more intense localizations evoke measurable seismic events, less intense occurrences (with no evident fracturing) would produce various transient electromagnetic phenomena. The particular manifestation, such as thermoelectric or piezoelectric effects, would depend upon the local geochemistry and architecture.