Computer-simulated evaluation of insect phenology models developed in the tropics:Chilo suppressalis(Walker) as an example

Computer-simulated studies were conducted to see if lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations could be estimated for tropical insects through field studies. In addition, computer-simulated studies were conducted to see if the use of such estimates, in phenology models, would provide for more reliable (less variable) predictions of insect phenological events than the use of calendar-based methods. Finally, we wished to see if predictions of tropical insect phenology, when using phenology models that had 'low quality' estimates of lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations, would give predictions that are just as reliable as those from phenology models that make use of 'high quality' estimates of lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations. Our results indicate that it is possible to estimate lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations of tropical insects from studies that are conducted in the field. They also indicate that predictions of insect phenology in the tropics, when made by using some phenology models, might be more reliable than the use of calendar-based methods. Finally, our results indicate that predictions of insect phenology in the tropics, when using phenology models that made use of low quality estimates of lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations, are just as reliable as predictions that are made when using phenology models which made use of high quality estimates. From these results we conclude that the development and use of insect phenology models may prove beneficial for predicting insect phenological events in the tropics.