This report examines past trends in the energy-efficiency of air travel and the potnetial for further aircraft efficiency improvements beyond the year 2000. Its purpose is to identify possible future commercial aircraft fleet efficiency improvements, ranging from what seems likely given existing trends and plans, to the maximum achievable given existing technology and the rate of aircraft stock turnover. The first step is to examine historical trends to understand what factors have contributed to past efficiency gains and how they have come about. Fuel-efficiency technologies are then identified based on published reports, and estimates of their impacts documented. Next the author determines the efficiencies of existing aircraft types and develop estimates for the next generation of aircraft to be delivered in the early 1990s. This report concentrates on passenger air travel.
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David L. Greene (1992) studied this question.