Establishment and validation of early prediction model for hypertriglyceridemic severe acute pancreatitis

Figures

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  Fig. 1. The nomogram for the early prediction model for hypertriglyceridemia severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP). Points are assigned to patients based on the value of C-reactive protein (mg/L), lactate dehydrogenase (U/L), serum calcium (mmol/L), and ascites presence (top two to five lines) by finding the appropriate points on the ‘C-reactive protein’, ‘Lactate dehydrogenase’, ‘Serum calcium’, and ‘Ascites’, and then projecting a vertical line to the ‘Points’ scale at the top line of the nomogram. Subsequently, these points are added together, and the corresponding score on the “Total Points” scale is marked. A vertical line is then projected from the ‘Total Points’ scale to the ‘Risk of HTG-SAP’

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  Fig. 2. Receiver operator characteristic curve of independent predictors and predictive models for hypertriglyceridemia severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP). The area under the curve (AUC) of the HTG-SAP model, C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), serum calcium, and ascites were 0.960, 0.886, 0.893, 0.872, and 0.850, respectively

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  Fig. 3. Receiver operator characteristic curve of model for hypertriglyceridemia severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP), bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), modified CT severity index (MCTSI), Ranson score, and Japanese severity scale (JSS). The area under the curve (AUC) of the HTG-SAP model, BISAP, MCTSI, Ranson score, JSS CT grade, and JSS prognostic factors score were 0.960, 0.794, 0.796, 0.894, 0.764, and 0.936, respectively

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  Fig. 4. Decision curve analysis for the hypertriglyceridemia severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP) model. The y-axis measures the net benefit, and the x-axis shows the threshold probability. The horizontal black line along the x-axis represents the assumption that no patient will need treatment for HTG-SAP, whereas the solid grey line represents the assumption that all patients will need treatment for HTG-SAP. The red line indicates the HTG-SAP model

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  Fig. 5. Calibration curve of hypertriglyceridemia severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP) model. The x-axis represents the predicted probability of HTG-SAP calculated according to the model, while the y-axis exhibits the actual probability of HTG-SAP. The apparent calibration curve (dotted line) indicates the model performance in the original data, while the bias-corrected curve (solid line) represents the model performance after correction for optimism using 1000 bootstrap resamples. A perfect prediction would fall on the 45-degree (dashed) reference line