What does this research mean for the field?

Parliamentary ballot drop-off relative to presidential ballots in Türkiye decreased significantly from 2018 to 2023, with variations in drop-off associated with prior alliance-partner exposure and recent earthquake impacts. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine parliamentary ballot drop-off relative to presidential ballot submission across all 81 provinces of Türkiye during concurrent elections in 2018 and 2023.

September 2, 2026Lectio SocialisOpen Access

Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023

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Authors

ETErdi Topçuoğlu

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Overview

Observational analysis uncovers declining parliamentary ballot drop-off across Turkish provinces, suggesting growing alignment between presidential and legislative voting behaviors.

Key Points

To examine parliamentary ballot drop-off relative to presidential ballot submission across all 81 provinces of Türkiye during concurrent elections in 2018 and 2023.
Extracted official election return statistics from the Supreme Election Council across all 81 provinces for the 2018 and 2023 concurrent elections.
Defined drop-off as the provincial shortfall in parliamentary ballots submitted relative to presidential ballots, alongside an untruncated signed ballot-count gap.
Estimated ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models predicting 2023 drop-off conditional on 2018 baselines, political geography, and alliance exposure, validated by permutation and leave-one-out tests.
Mean benchmark drop-off declined from 0.0231% of registered voters in 2018 to 0.0046% in 2023, alongside a marked contraction in dispersion and upper-tail values.
The untruncated signed ballot-count gap shifted from a predominantly positive distribution in 2018 to one tightly centered around zero in 2023.
Higher alliance-partner exposure in 2018 was associated with reduced conditional drop-off in 2023 across multiple robustness tests, whereas earthquake-affected provinces exhibited moderately higher drop-off.

Cite This Study

Erdi Topçuoğlu (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a97e237c562ede874ec62ab https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1938502

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September 2, 2026Lectio SocialisOpen Access

Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

ETErdi Topçuoğlu

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Observational analysis uncovers declining parliamentary ballot drop-off across Turkish provinces, suggesting growing alignment between presidential and legislative voting behaviors.

Key Points

To examine parliamentary ballot drop-off relative to presidential ballot submission across all 81 provinces of Türkiye during concurrent elections in 2018 and 2023.
Extracted official election return statistics from the Supreme Election Council across all 81 provinces for the 2018 and 2023 concurrent elections.
Defined drop-off as the provincial shortfall in parliamentary ballots submitted relative to presidential ballots, alongside an untruncated signed ballot-count gap.
Estimated ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models predicting 2023 drop-off conditional on 2018 baselines, political geography, and alliance exposure, validated by permutation and leave-one-out tests.
Mean benchmark drop-off declined from 0.0231% of registered voters in 2018 to 0.0046% in 2023, alongside a marked contraction in dispersion and upper-tail values.
The untruncated signed ballot-count gap shifted from a predominantly positive distribution in 2018 to one tightly centered around zero in 2023.
Higher alliance-partner exposure in 2018 was associated with reduced conditional drop-off in 2023 across multiple robustness tests, whereas earthquake-affected provinces exhibited moderately higher drop-off.

Cite This Study

Erdi Topçuoğlu (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a97e237c562ede874ec62ab https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1938502

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