Prospective cohort study observes increased arthritis odds in frail older adults, suggesting baseline frailty functions as an independent risk marker.
Background Longitudinal evidence on frailty and subsequent arthritis in China is limited. Methods We analyzed 4,615 adults aged ≥45 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011–2020), excluding those with baseline physician-diagnosed arthritis. Multivariable logistic regression assessed associations of baseline pre-frailty and frailty with arthritis at follow-up. Sensitivity, discrimination, and exploratory subgroup analyses were performed. Results At follow-up, 1,219 participants (26.4%) reported arthritis. Compared with robust participants, pre-frail (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.14–1.59) and frail participants (OR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.04–2.55) had higher odds of arthritis. Findings remained directionally consistent in sensitivity analyses. Adding frailty modestly improved discrimination (AUC: 0.588 vs. 0.599; ΔAUC = 0.011; P = 0.017). No interaction remained significant after multiple-testing correction. Conclusion Pre-frailty and frailty were associated with higher odds of arthritis after 9 years, supporting frailty as a potential longitudinal risk marker, although its incremental discriminatory value was limited.
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Wei et al. (2026) studied this question.
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