A robust design of renewable hydrogen supply chain networks under demand uncertainty: a multi-period approach for the transport sector

Green hydrogen is among the most promising low-carbon energy carriers for transportation, yet limited infrastructure and uncertain future demand impede its large-scale adoption. Identifying an appropriate hydrogen infrastructure is, therefore, critical to realise a hydrogen-based economy. When designing such an infrastructure, uncertainty associated with hydrogen demand needs to be considered, as it has a significant impact on hydrogen supply chain (HSC) network decisions. However, existing literature largely lacks a holistic view of the entire HSC network under such uncertainty. To bridge this gap, we develop a multi-period hydrogen supply chain network that takes into account not only the element of demand uncertainty but also system-wide considerations. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is formulated to accommodate uncertainty by considering different demand scenarios and, hence, to identify a profitable hydrogen supply chain network design problem. The applicability of the formulation is illustrated using the example of Great Britain, where the supply chain network considers green hydrogen transported via road logistics systems. From the results, it is evident that the robust approach provides significant profit gains under uncertain demands compared to the deterministic one. The framework is structurally general and can be adapted to other hydrogen applications through appropriate parameter modifications.