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September 2, 2026International Economic Review

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Competition for College Admissions

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Authors

SGShijun GuLZLichen Zhang

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Overview

Economic modeling reveals substantial parental overinvestment driven by college admissions competition, suggesting that taxing private education and subsidizing public investment improves welfare.

Key Points

  • To investigate how competition for limited college seats influences parental human capital investments, creates educational externalities, and guides optimal education policy.
  • Developed a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle framework incorporating parental human capital investments, future labor productivity, and competitive college admissions.
  • Estimated the structural model using empirical socioeconomic and educational data from China.
  • Admission competition triggers a rat-race externality where parents overinvest, accounting for a substantial fraction of total private educational spending.
  • Interventions that suppress competition improve current-generation welfare but can simultaneously reduce long-run human capital accumulation.
  • Levying taxes on private education expenditures alongside public investment subsidies balances the efficiency-equity trade-off and maximizes aggregate welfare.

Cite This Study

Gu et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a97e2f6c562ede874ec7697https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.70104
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