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September 2, 2026Regional Environmental ChangeOpen Access

Alternative land management in depopulating rural landscapes: Scenario analysis of impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services

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Authors

TITaira IshiguroSHShizuka Hashimoto

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Overview

Scenario modeling study reveals distinct ecosystem service trade-offs under alternative land management in depopulating rural landscapes, highlighting tailored conservation strategies.

Key Points

  • To evaluate the impacts of intermediate land management strategies, specifically periodic mowing and afforestation, on ecosystem services and landscape biodiversity across depopulating rural regions.
  • Simulated three spatially explicit 2050 land-use scenarios—reference (cultivation or abandonment), extensive management (10% periodic mowing), and forestation (10% afforestation)—for Fukui Prefecture, Japan, using an abandonment potential model.
  • Quantified effects across scenarios on three ecosystem services (water yield, carbon sequestration, and water purification) and evaluated landscape heterogeneity as an indicator of biodiversity.
  • All scenarios exhibited declining water yield alongside increases in carbon sequestration and water purification, with extensive management and forestation generating larger shifts than baseline reference abandonment.
  • Landscape heterogeneity was best maintained under the extensive mowing scenario, preventing the homogenization that occurs with uncontrolled forest succession.
  • Management intervention effects were predominantly concentrated in peripheral lowland zones, whereas remote mountainous areas consistently transitioned toward dense forest cover across all scenarios.

Cite This Study

Ishiguro et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a97e305c562ede874ec7984https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02659-y
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