Alternative land management in depopulating rural landscapes: Scenario analysis of impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Farmland abandonment has significantly affected biodiversity and ecosystem services in depopulating rural regions, necessitating locally adapted management strategies. However, the effects of alternative land management practices that precede complete abandonment remain underexplored. This study, therefore, evaluated the impacts of two such options—periodic mowing and afforestation—on the paddy-dominated landscapes of Fukui Prefecture, Japan. We developed three spatially explicit scenarios for 2050: (i) the reference (REF) scenario, in which farmland is either cultivated or abandoned; (ii) the extensive management (EXT) scenario, in which 10% of underused farmland is maintained through periodic mowing; and (iii) the forestation (FOR) scenario, in which 10% of highly underused farmland is afforested. Land use under each scenario was projected using an abandonment potential model based on past farmland abandonment trends. The projections were then used to evaluate three ecosystem services and landscape heterogeneity as a proxy for biodiversity. Results showed that although all scenarios exhibited similar trends—decreasing water yield and increasing carbon sequestration and water purification—the EXT and FOR scenarios showed greater changes than the REF scenario. Landscape heterogeneity was better preserved under the EXT scenario. Furthermore, the effects of alternative management options were concentrated in peripheral lowland areas, whereas remote mountainous regions largely converged toward forest cover. Overall, these findings highlight the potential of alternative land management strategies to address pressing environmental challenges, including climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and underscore the need to integrate agricultural and environmental policies.