Key result
The STS risk model and EuroSCORE II overpredict the risk of mortality and stroke for patients undergoing anaortic off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (P=0.007).
Why the study?
The performance of the STS risk model and EuroSCORE II had not been specifically evaluated in patients undergoing anaortic OPCAB.
Do the STS risk model and EuroSCORE II accurately predict operative mortality and stroke in patients undergoing anaortic OPCAB?
Observational (n=1,048)
Do the STS risk model and EuroSCORE II accurately predict operative mortality and stroke in patients undergoing anaortic OPCAB?
Current risk prediction models (STS and EuroSCORE II) overpredict mortality and stroke risk for anaortic OPCAB, suggesting this surgical technique may offer lower risks than conventional CABG.
Risk models may discourage anaortic off-pump CABG use; leaves open need for technique-specific recalibration.
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II for patients undergoing anaortic off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). METHODS: From January 2010 to June 2017, 1,048 patients (isolated anaortic OPCAB: 1,043, on-pump conversion:5) undergoing isolated anaortic OPCAB were enrolled. The STS risk score and EuroSCORE II were calculated with dedicated online software. Calibration of the models were performed by the risk-adjusted event ratio that was defined as observed events divided by expected events (O/E ratio) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discrimination powers were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). CONCLUSION: Preexisting risk predicting scoring systems, STS risk model and EuroSCORE II, overpredict the risk of mortality and stroke rate for anaortic OPCAB. These findings suggest the possibility that anaortic OPCAB can lower the operative mortality and occurrence of postoperative stroke than conventional coronary artery bypass grafting.
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Choi et al. (2021) conducted an observational in Anaortic off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB) (n=1,048). STS risk model and EuroSCORE II was evaluated on Mortality and stroke rate (p=0.007). The STS risk model and EuroSCORE II overpredict the risk of mortality and stroke for patients undergoing anaortic off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (P=0.007).
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