Dangerous atmospheric events: a new physical-mathematical approach

A significant progress has been recently reached in a long-range forecast of such dangerous atmospheric events as catastrophic and violent tornadoes EF3-EF5 level. Eppelbaum 2013 elaborated non-stochastic long-term prediction method using pattern recognition theory and Fourier analysis. He detected a close correlation tie of the total tornado numbers per annum with the gravity system of the Earth -Moon -Sun producing the tide forces. However, physical meaning of this effect leaves undisclosed. In present work, we propose a physical-mathematical model which elucidates the process of violent tornado initiation. It occurs in two main stages. At first, the gravitational forces and the hurricane winds in the upper troposphere form the long tide non-linear waves in the lower troposphere. The gale-force winds in the top troposphere arise at intrusion of air cold masses into the warm areas and are usually connected to the fast synoptic cyclones bearing thundery cloudiness and rains. The arisen gravitational non-linear waves rush at the speed of tide waves