Obesity Metabolic Phenotype, Changes in Time and Risk of Diabetes Mellitus in an Observational Prospective Study on General Population

Objectives: To evaluate the distribution and changes in different obesity metabolic phenotypes, as well as their impact on the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a northwest Chinese population sample. Methods: Data comes from prospective cohort study (n = 1,393, mean follow up = 9.46 years). Participants were classified into four groups through a combination of the Chinese Diabetes Society (CDS) diagnostic criteria for metabolic syndrome with anthropometric measurements: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically healthy overweight/obese (MHO), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), and metabolically unhealthy overweight/obese (MUO). Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate changes in obesity metabolic phenotypes and risk of T2DM. Results: Participants in MUO state had the highest risk of developing T2DM, the incidence density was 12.10/1,000 person-year. The MHO and MUO groups showed an increased risk of incident diabetes based on body mass index (BMI) (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03–1.61; p = 0.026 and HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.02–1.40; p = 0.024 respectively.) Besides, the MHO group had an increased risk of incident diabetes based on waist circumference (WC) (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.10–1.80; p = 0.006). Conclusion: Diabetes is more frequent in the MHO and MUO groups and co-occurrence of obesity and metabolic abnormalities (MA) contributes to the development of T2DM.