Key result
A nomogram prediction model incorporating age, tumor stage, surgery, and chemotherapy accurately predicted 3-month mortality in patients with primary malignant cardiac tumors (AUC 0.816).
Why the study?
Primary malignant cardiac tumors are associated with an unfavourable prognosis, prompting the need to establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting 3-month mortality.
Observational (n=638)
Yes
A newly developed nomogram incorporating age, tumor stage, surgery, and chemotherapy accurately predicts 3-month mortality in patients with primary malignant cardiac tumors.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May aid short-term prognostication in rare cardiac tumors; leaves open external validation before clinical adoption.
BACKGROUND: Primary malignant cardiac tumors (PMCTs) are correlated with an unfavourable prognosis. The aim of the current study was to establish and validate a nomogram model for 3-month mortality prediction for patients with PMCT. METHODS: A total of 638 PMCT patients diagnosed between 1975 to 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly enrolled and assigned into a training cohort (N=448) and validation cohort (N=190). Early mortality cases were analyzed, and related risk factors were identified by logistic regression models, and significant risk factors were used to establish a predictive nomogram model. The predictive capability of the model was validated by calibration analysis and receiver operating curve (ROC) in both training and validation cohorts. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic analysis revealed the independent risk factors for early mortality were old age, chemotherapy, surgery, and tumor stage, and these were used to construct the nomogram. In terms of calibration and discrimination, both the internal and external validation calibration curves revealed consistency between the nomogram prediction and the actual observation. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram for 3-month mortality in the internal and external validation was 0.816 and 0.805, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Old age and advanced tumor stage are involved in higher odds of early mortality, while surgery and chemotherapy could reduce this. The nomogram model provides an accurate, user-friendly, and reproducible tool for predicting early mortality in PMCT patients.
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Wang et al. (2021) conducted an observational in Primary malignant cardiac tumors (n=638). Nomogram prediction model was evaluated on 3-month mortality (AUC 0.816 (internal) and 0.805 (external)). A nomogram prediction model incorporating age, tumor stage, surgery, and chemotherapy accurately predicted 3-month mortality in patients with primary malignant cardiac tumors (AUC 0.816).
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