Can the new energy demonstration city pilot boost energy justice? A spatial difference-in-differences analysis

Energy justice is central to achieving a fair and inclusive energy transition. Using balanced panel data for 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2022, this study employs a spatial difference-in-differences approach to examine the relationship between New Energy Demonstration City pilot designation and urban energy justice while accounting for inter-city spatial spillovers. The analysis yields three main findings. First, the SDID estimates suggest that NEDC pilot designation is associated with higher local energy justice, while the spatial estimates indicate positive cumulative spillovers across spatially connected cities. Second, industrial structure upgrading and regional development inequality moderate the estimated policy relationships in different ways, with industrial structure upgrading strengthening both the local relationship and spatial spillovers, whereas regional development inequality weakens the local relationship but has no significant moderating effect on spatial spillovers. Third, the local estimates are relatively larger in eastern and central regions and in large cities, while the estimated spatial spillovers are stronger in resource-based cities and cities with higher renewable energy endowments. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating spatial linkages and local development conditions into the design and evaluation of new energy policies aimed at advancing energy justice.