Turning uncertainty into advantage: how policy-induced digitalization fuels export competitiveness

We exploit China’s 2018 Supply Chain Innovation and Application Pilot Program as a quasi-natural experiment to evaluate how supply chain digitalization shapes firm-level export competitiveness amidst rising global volatility. Using a difference-in-differences framework spanning 2010–2023, validated by a battery of robustness checks, we document a substantial export-promoting effect of policy-driven digital upgrading. This strategic advantage is structurally mediated through substantive innovation, equipping firms with core technological breakthroughs rather than mere operational efficiencies. Furthermore, we uncover a distinct asymmetry in risk mitigation: digitalization serves as an adaptive buffer against systemic industry-level shocks, yet it fails to mitigate idiosyncratic firm-level volatility. Finally, although positive spatial and industrial spillovers exist, the direct policy benefits remain overwhelmingly dominant and highly asymmetric, accruing predominantly to large, non-manufacturing, and digitally mature enterprises. These findings highlight a binding resource constraint, underscoring that supply chain digitalization functions as a contingent dynamic capability rather than a ubiquitous, universally accessible technological fix.