The role of education in intergenerational class mobility trends in Argentina: mediating and moderating effects across cohorts, born 1938–1996

This article examines the role of education in intergenerational class mobility in Argentina comparing cohort from 12 nationally representative probability-sample surveys collected between 2003 and 2021 (13,175 men, 12,698 women). Education is hypothesized as having a dual role. Education is a mediator between origins and destinations, an indirect effect in two steps”. Inequality of Educational Outcomes (OE) and Occupational Class Returns to Education (ED). Education may also act as a moderator, if the direct origin–destination effect (OD|E, the origins-destination association controlled for education), declines with higher education. Against the backdrop of modernization theory—predicting declining OE and OD|E and strengthening ED—, we investigate which trends materialize. Using margin-free odds-ratio models, trends are assessed by comparing constant, unconstrained, and linearly constrained UniDiff parameters. Results indicate significant weakening of the OE and ED mediating associations, alongside a modest strengthening of the direct OD|E association. No moderation effect is found.