Machine learning analysis reveals divergent drivers for commuting and leisure travel emissions in urban travelers, highlighting the need for targeted low-carbon urban planning strategies.
Despite growing attention to urban travel carbon emissions, the differentiated drivers of commuting and non-commuting behaviors remain underexplored. Using Wuhan as a case, this study applies time-geographic theory and interpretable machine learning to examine nonlinear relationships shaping travel-related carbon emissions (TCE) across commuting and non-commuting groups. Results show commuting TCE is primarily influenced by socioeconomic factors such as gender and income, reflecting rigid constraints, while non-commuting TCE is more responsive to built environment features, especially POI density and transit accessibility. A shared low-emission window exists, with optimal POI density (100–400 items/km 2 ) and intersection density (<15/km 2 ). Interaction patterns indicate that built-environment associations vary across socioeconomic groups. The analysis also highlights Wuhan’s spatial duality: morphological polycentrism coexists with functional monocentrism, while non-commuting TCE is more closely associated with community-scale services. These findings suggest the need for differentiated, group-specific low-carbon strategies, contributing new evidence for integrating behavioral heterogeneity into transport and land use policies.
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Li et al. (2026) studied this question.
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